The euro was worth 6.94 birr in October 2000, and then peaked in April 2014 at 27 birr before falling to 21.93 in March 2015.During the fifteen-year period economic fundamentals were as follows:
Early 2000, Ethiopia’s external debt was unsustainable. Debt forgiveness/rescheduling in 2000-2008 and 2010 – plus substantial external aid – have brought indebtedness to a manageable level. In 2014, the debt to GDP ratio was a healthy 22.6% (est.), but is now increasing due to public sector investment expenditure. External debt as a percentage of exports and primary income looks less healthy as export performance remains unsatisfactory.
If the inflation differential between Ethiopia and Euro zone turns out 8.5% in 2015, then the exchange rate recorded in Q1-2015 means a 25% real exchange rate appreciation of the BIRR against the Euro compared to 2014. Unrealistic, considering Ethiopia’s CA deficit – even when corrected for FDI inflows – while the Euro zone CA may top €200 billion surplus in 2015. Finally, the forex reserves exceeded 3-month worth of imports in 2002-03; reserves are currently about 2 months only. Foreign currency shortage is a recurrent problem in Ethiopia explaining the existence of a parallel market and rationing of foreign exchange. Of course, the issue of devaluation is sensitive because devaluation produces winners and losers. But, what devaluation seeks to achieve is a change in the relative price of exportable goods (vis-à-vis non-tradables) resulting hopefully in a boost of export performance, and, a disincentive to imports (thus a strategy of efficient import substitution).
EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
The choice of an exchange rate regime is important for competitiveness, macroeconomic stability and growth. Exchange Rate regimes are classified as fixed exchange rate, fully floating market-determined exchange rate or intermediate regimes. Ethiopian authorities describe their Exchange Rate regime as a managed float (= intermediate regime) with no predetermined path for the exchange rate.
Before an auction system was established in 1992/93, the BIRR was pegged to the USD at 2.07 BIRR. An inter-bank foreign exchangemarket was created in October 2001 with the National Bank of Ethiopia intervening.
Historically, depreciation pressures on the BIRR have prevailed. While the USD-BIRR rate stands around 20.5 in May 2015, the IMF (Oct. 2014) estimated the Real Effective Exchange Rate overvaluation in the range of 10-13%. The “authorities acknowledge that a competitive exchange rate is important but consider too rapid adjustment to be counterproductive due to feedback effects on inflation”.
Under Ethiopia’s regime:
MONETARY POLICY
The NBE aims to maintain sufficient international reserves to cover (a) payments for immediate and short term imports of commodities and services into Ethiopia, (b) foreign debt payment commitments. When reserves decline, the Governor considers remedial measures and may suspend issuance of foreign exchange permits.
The bank carries out monetary management with a mix of policy instruments: sale/ purchase of securities issued by Government, a central bank credit facility to cover commercial banks’ short-term need, reserve requirements, setting floor deposit interest rate, use of credit control and moral suasion.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the NBE reviews quarterly the economic developments and proposes a monetary policy stance to theBoard of Directors in line with targets for inflation, growth rates of monetary aggregates, GDP growth rate, the real equilibrium exchange rate and the foreign exchange reserve.
The NBE is the biggest generator of foreign currency and enables it to intervene as the major market player, assuring exchange rate stability to some degree.
The dilemma of any policy decision maker is to achieve x targets with y instruments. If the number of targets exceeds the number of instruments available, then meeting the targets would be a matter of pure coincidence. Even if the number of Central Bank’s policy instruments exceeds the number of targets, it is not certain that the CB will be able to meet trend targets as it has limited or no influence on productivity growth, investments and external demand. Therefore, it may miss one or several targets. The question is which ones shall be sacrificed?
IMPACT OF DEVALUATION
Economists focusing on economic fundamentals as drivers of exchange rate movements look at:
Speculative attacks do occur resulting in ER movements not in line with fundamentals.
From the observation of two experiences with devaluation (Franc CFA in 1994 and 1997 Asian financial crises) we have learnt that:
true that domestic price increase erodes the initial positive impact on price competitiveness, but this is a process takes up to ten years in most cases.
The difficulty of CFA economies to maintain high economic growth under conditions of sustainability, following currency devaluation, is linked to a structural issue. For an economy to be able to increase export supply and to substitute for imports, its industry must be sufficiently diversified. One expects the supply response to be stronger the larger the manufacturing base of the economy. This was the case in Asia. Ethiopia’s economy is notoriously undiversified.
In conclusion, currency realignment can work. If the objective behind a devaluation strategy is to restore price competitiveness, then the devaluation basically BUYS YOU TIME to develop intrinsic competitiveness in your tradables sectors. Competitiveness requires business upgrading to boost productivity, product/services innovation and market diversification. These are processes which cannot be changed overnight.
Established in 2014, Verde Beef Processing PLC is an agribusiness company with an established feedlot in Adami Tulu, Oromia, Ethiopia on a 1,300 hectare farm.
Our company seeks to become the largest beef production firm in Ethiopia and to be locally and internationally recognized as a premier producer of high quality beef. To do so, our business model focuses on buying young calves locally and to grow them, through a mix of appropriate care and great quality feed, to full size A grade steers of which their high quality meat with be exported to Middle East markets.
Why did you decide to invest in Ethiopia?
First of all, our experienced management team knows the market, having collectively managed several agribusinesses in Ethiopia over the recent years.
Also, Ethiopia has a very large livestock population, the biggest in Africa, which allows us to source from the local market. The climate in Ethiopia allows for two crops per annum under irrigation, this is a competitive advantage over most other beef producing nations.
Ethiopia is also a great location for our business, as we can reach our Middle East markets quickly and cost-efficiently, through air and sea freight.
How is your relationship with the Ethiopian administration and its agencies?
However, it seems that the big picture, as outlined and understood by top officials at the government agencies, is often misunderstood at lower levels. The rationale behind our business model and business decisions is often less understood at this level. As such, we do face many challenges in our everyday operations which cause delays and can sometimes impact significantly our business.
How did you recruit employees and how is your interaction with the local community?
I believe we have a good relationship with the community. We currently employ 300 people (full-time, part-time and contractors) but we aim to reach 1,500 full-time employees once we get to full capacity. These employees were primarily hired in the local communities around our farm. We also hired from other regions, when we could not find specific expertise in the area. We intend to provide appropriate training and technology transfer as our procedures and processes become fully implemented.
We also provided easy access to drinking water for the communities and a forum was set up to facilitate dialogue between our company and the local population though the forum of community elders..
Finally, we buy locally around 40% of what is required for the feed and we created demand for young calves, allowing farmers to generate revenue earlier on their cattle investment. This also facilitates de-stocking which is vital to improving range land quality and the reproductive potential of the herds. As such, there is significant spill over effects from our investment that benefit the local community.What would be your recommendations to other EU businesses investing/willing to invest in Ethiopia?
It is very important to do your preliminary research well and to make sure that your business activities will align with the long term economic goals that Ethiopia set for itself, notably in its second Growth and Transformation Plan (2015/2016 – 2019/2020). This country has a clear view on how its economic and social development should occur and it has carved out a specific role for foreign investors.
You also need to be careful not to rely too much on assumptions, past experience and previous business models. Ethiopia is a very specific country and local knowledge is essential in order to do business efficiently in the country.After less than 4 years from the acquisition of the Bedele and Harar breweries, which were acquired from the GoE in 2011, Heineken have now inaugurated in January 2015 the biggest brewery in Ethiopia.
The €110mln brewery is part of a total investment program of €310mln in the country since 2011. Why Heineken first decided to invest in Ethiopia?
Ethiopia is a young and dynamic beer market with per capita consumption of about 5L, a population of 92 million people and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It is therefore no surprise that HEINEKEN is investing for the future and preparing for a more competitive and demanding market. Our objective is to create a leading brewery group in Ethiopia, through a strong portfolio of national and international brands and best in class people, processes and performance, and at the same time be a partner for growth in the communities in which we operate.
Why Heineken decided to invest into building a new facility in Kilinto?
The demand for our beers is growing and we predict will continue to grow over the years to come. We already have breweries in Bedele and Harar, but we needed to add capacity in the Addis Ababa area. It was part of our business plans when we bought Harar and Bedele brewery to build additional capacity closer to the heart of the beer market tobecome a truly national player. In the new brewery, we produce Walia, Bedele and Harar, and other new brands including Heineken will follow.
How is the relationship of the GoE and its agencies? Which is the preferred channel to communicate with the GoE?
The Ethiopian Government has been very supportive starting with the purchase of previously state owned Bedele and Harar breweries which formed the basis of our operating business in Ethiopia. The Government also paved the way to build our new state of the art brewery in Kilinto and has been very supportive through the whole process of acquiring the land and building the brewery. On a wider scale, we have two on-going Public Private Partnerships which have the Government as a key stakeholder. Establishing relationships with key stakeholders in both the government and private sector is very important in Ethiopia.Our focus is not necessarily on the number of years of experience the candidate has but making sure the candidate has ‘Drive to Win’; Integrity; Passion and a high level of Accountability. We also have a Management Trainee Program which aims to build the talent pipeline with University Graduates. They are provided various assignments and development workshops along with on the job training. So far we have recruited from AAU, Jimma and Haramaya University for this program.
We provide functional, leadership and technical trainings both locally and internationally. We also send key staff on international benchmarking visits to other breweries. In addition, there are on-goingtrainings on safety & health, responsible consumption and Code of Business Conduct. HEIENEKEN has online learning academies geared towards all disciplines available for all staff across the globe.
How do you retain Talents? Do you have any special program?
In addition to offering a competitive remuneration package, we offer a wide range of benefits to include free treatment at brewery clinics, medical insurance, transportation, bonus pay-outs, loan options, local and international training opportunities, career prospects to name a few.What would be your recommendations to other EU businesses investing/willing to invest in Ethiopia? Any other important messages you are willing to share with our Members.
In 2013 HEINEKEN signed a 4 year Public Private Partnership called CREATE (Community Revenue Enhancement Through Agricultural Technology Extension), in partnership with the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) and Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), aimed at improving quality and quantity of malt barley grown in Ethiopia as well as improved access to markets for farmers. This has already enabled HEINEKEN to support local smallholder farmers to supply our breweries and drive this desired increase in local sourcing. After only two years in operation, the CREATE Project is already supporting more than 6,000 farmers, and by 2017, this will grow to 20,000 farmers.